Alex Thomson writes for LGC on what a Conservative-led government might mean for councils
Author: Alex Thomson, Localis |
Localis’ Alex Thomson writes in LGC on what local government should expect if the Conservatives retain office.
A majority seems unlikely but a Conservative-led coalition or minority administration is still a live contender. What might that mean for local government?
Unsurprisingly as the incumbents, there would be plenty of ‘steady as she goes’ continuation of current policies ? more city deals and ongoing support for police and crime commissioners and local enterprise partnerships (our recent report: The Next LEPs looks at what expanded role the latter might play in the next parliament).
We can also expect an expanded free schools programme; more university technical colleges; and continued encouragement for councils (along with the rest of the public sector) to mutualise services. Council tax would remain unreformed and subject to referendums. And the pearl handled revolver will remain in the minister’s drawer for anyone mentioning reorganisation.
But it won’t all just be business-as-usual for councils, for there are several policies in the manifesto which will have implications ? positive and negative ? for local government.
The single most eye-catching piece of localism in this parliament was the Greater Manchester devolution deal and the manifesto makes clear that the door would be open for more deals in a similar vein ? for large cities that adopt a metro-mayor. But I wonder if this qualification might yield under pressure.
Labour’s non-prescriptive offer will have whetted the appetites of many counties and a smaller, more rural Liberal Democrat party, if in coalition, might push for a more equitable distribution of devolutionary jackpots.
Having already enacted the biggest reform of business rates for 20 years, the Conservatives are likely to go further, with the 100% retention pilots promising.
And having been the first government in living memory to make meaningful progress on the integration of health and social care, there will be more to come in this vital area. The Conservatives have firmly supported Simon Stevens’s NHS Five Year Forward View, so there will be the opportunity for areas across the country to try a variety of alternative models of delivery, although not many more will get the Greater Manchester package.
Another positive, though largely unreported, is the party’s pledge to encourage council management of public sector land and buildings. The (similarly underreported) One Public Estate programme was a good first step, but this proposal looks to push it further, giving councils a 10% sale stake. As we argued in our report Public Land, Public Good, public land is a precious resource that needs a steward and local authorities are ideally suited to that role.
However several challenges lie ahead for councils if the Conservatives retain power. On the housing front, councils with stock will be expected to sell off expensive vacant properties in order to fund the extension of the right-to-buy to housing associations.
While it has been stressed that units sold (both local authority and housing association) will be replaced on a one-to-one basis there will presumably be a time lag between the sale of any unit and its replacement, which could lead to temporarily housing some families in the more expensive private rented sector. It is also not clear what the impact will be on council balance sheets and planned regeneration schemes.
And most significantly, and predictably, there are the expected cuts to central grant implied in both Conservative and Labour manifestos. Although a coalition or minority government could find it tricky to muster the required parliamentary numbers to push through some cuts, this will probably spare some but not all of the pain.
Councils across the country have performed magnificently in the past five years to deal with massive financial challenges, here’s hoping they can do so again.